Is Saudi Arabia Going to Get a Nuke?

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On 22 July 2026, the United States announced a deal with Saudi Arabia to help them construct a civilian nuclear program. The deal had long been desired by the Saudis, but in the midst of the US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran, and Iran’s retaliation against America’s close regional partners (including the Saudis), the agreement was sped up. The United States is attempting to keep the Saudis within its own economic and political orbit, and in doing so is willing to forego numerous safeguards on the nuclear program that would be required for any other country. But there are numerous hurdles (and much history) to the deal.

The agreement would not prevent enrichment and also fails to commit the Saudis to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. In effect, this would be granting the Saudis a power that the US and Israel have twice gone to war with Iran over in the past year. Empire is of course synonymous with hypocrisy, but the consequences could be dire for the region and the world. One US think tank expert noted that once the Saudis are able to produce fissile material with the help of the United States, “they can divert it for nuclear weapons.”

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, commonly referred to as MBS, the architect of the brutal and disastrous Saudi war on Yemen, who approved the assassination of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, has been trying to reach a nuclear deal with the US for five years. The deal, noted one observer, is “overturning decades and decades of US nonproliferation policy.” But the deal would entrench the relationship between the two countries, requiring decades of close economic, commercial and security cooperation, which would pull the US ever deeper into acting as a kind of security guarantor for the Saudis, another key objective of MBS and the Kingdom.

A nuclear analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International peace commented that this “incredibly shortsighted” deal “appears to provide a pathway to a country that really might want to proliferate,” adding: “You cannot exclude the possibility that Saudi Arabia would nationalize this facility and use it to make a bomb.”

The Israelis of course don’t like the deal, but they have their own nuclear weapons already. Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett, also running in upcoming elections, commented that, “enriching nuclear material on Saudi territory could prompt a nuclear race in the region, leading to a total breakdown.” Though some officials in the US and Israel view the nuclear deal as a step towards achieving normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, a path that both the previous Trump and Biden administrations had attempted to pursue.

Trump then added in a demand that the deal was conditional upon the Saudis accepting a normalization agreement with Israel, something which the Saudis said was an impossibility unless Israel seeks peace with the Palestinians and allows for the establishment of a Palestinian state, or at least formal recognition of a Palestinian state by the US and UN on the 1967 borders. Trump stated that the Saudi nuclear deal was “totally subject” to Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, which the first Trump term negotiated between Israel and a number of Arab states, including Bahrain and the UAE, to grant formal recognition and relations between those countries and Israel. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that if the Saudis “don’t join the Abraham Accords, the deal is off.”

The rapid turn from Trump just a day after announcing the deal, then suddenly imposing strenuous conditions (which are beyond red lines for the Saudis) is typical of Trump’s tactics. Perhaps it was a rapid reaction to concerns expressed by the Israelis and others, or perhaps a mere attempt to offer a hand to the Saudis and then slap them with it, in the hopes that it would press them to meet his demands more fully. Or perhaps it is just Trump taking to social media to put his foot in his mouth and spout whatever nonsense he does on a regular basis, from which he may also soon backtrack. But regardless of the motivations, if any, it is clear that Trump has put his own deal in immense jeopardy. For the Saudis, they may have never been closer to a huge nuclear deal, something they have long wanted.

Back in 2018, Saudi Crown Prince MBS said in an interview that, “without a doubt if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.” Saudi nuclear ambitions have not been the purview of MBS alone, but rather a long-standing goal in some Saudi circles.

According to a report from the Guardian in 2010, western intelligence officials were worried that in the event Iran obtained a nuclear weapon, it would trigger an arms race across the region. The biggest worry, according to such officials, was what Saudi Arabia would do. According to the report, western intelligence officials said the Saudis paid for up to 60% of the Pakistani nuclear weapons program, and in return, apparently retained an option to purchase a handful of nuclear weapons from Pakistan in the event the region entered into a full-on nuclear arms race. Both the Saudis and the Pakistanis denied such an arrangement, but the concerns remained among some western officials.

This story was confirmed a couple years later, reported in the Times (in the UK) in 2012, this time citing an unnamed Saudi official who said that if the Iranians built a bomb, “it would be completely unacceptable to have Iran with a nuclear capability and not the kingdom.” A western official added that the Saudis would seek to have the Pakistanis honour their prior agreement and purchase a bomb “the next day” after any theoretical Iranian nuclear weapons test.

Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal, former Saudi intelligence chief and ambassador to the US, warned in 2011 that if the Saudis found themselves between the nuclear arsenals of Israel and Iran, it would have to consider producing its own. “It is our duty toward our nation and people to consider all possible options, including the possession of these weapons,” the prince said.

A 2013 report from BBC Newsnight again affirmed the story that the Saudis might purchase nuclear weapons from Pakistan, according to intelligence seen by a senior NATO official. Additionally, former Israeli head of military intelligence, Amos Yadlin, told a conference that if Iran got the bomb, “the Saudis will not wait one month. They already paid for the bomb, they will go to Pakistan and bring what they need to bring.” Gary Samore, a former counter-proliferation adviser to President Obama, stated that, “I do think that the Saudis believe that they have some understanding with Pakistan that, in extremis, they would have claim to acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan.” Although he also suggested that he thought it would be much more likely, in the event of such a scenario, “for Pakistan to send its own forces, its own troops armed with nuclear weapons and with delivery systems to be deployed in Saudi Arabia,” as opposed to just handing over a few nuclear warheads.

More recently, in September of 2025, Saudi Arabia signed a “strategic mutual defense” pact with Pakistan, a sign that the Saudis were attempting to expand their security alliances in a signal to both the US and Israel. The agreement was signed just one week after Israel undertook missile strikes in Qatar targeting Hamas negotiators, causing an eruption of anger and fear among the Gulf Arab states. A senior Saudi official told the Financial Times, “We hope it will reinforce our deterrence – aggression against one is aggression against the other,” adding: “This is a comprehensive defense agreement that will utilize all defensive and military means deemed necessary depending on the specific threat.” The pact was signed by Saudi Crown Prince MBS and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose office affirmed that the pact “states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” The Saudis reportedly informed the Americans about the agreement only after it was signed.

When asked whether this defense pact would include having access to Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella, a Saudi official told Reuters that, “This is a comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means.” But Pakistan’s defense minister told Reuters that nuclear weapons were “not on the radar” of the pact. However, the same defense minister then was then quoted in the Associated Press saying that Pakistan’s nuclear program “will be made available” to the Saudis, if needed, under the aegis of the defense pact, suggesting that Saudi Arabia was in fact incorporated under the Pakistani nuclear umbrella. The defense minister stated in an interview that Pakistan’s nuclear capability, which “was established long ago when we conducted tests… What we have, and the capabilities we possess, will be made available” to the Saudis, “according to this agreement.”

Regardless of what results from this proposed Saudi-US deal, or whether the Saudi-Pakistani alliance actually extends to a nuclear umbrella (the mixed messaging on both counts makes them both unreliable), it is evident that nuclear proliferation and nuclear weapons make the region more dangerous and unstable. Having been focused for decades on the possible threat of a largely theoretical Iranian nuclear weapons program (which has become more likely following the US-Israeli war on Iran), it is worth asking whether or not the real nuclear proliferation threat comes from the western world’s close ally, Saudi Arabia? Or, for that matter, from the one power in the region that actually has nuclear weapons: Israel.

Andrew Gavin Marshall is a writer and researcher of politics, history, and economics based in Toronto, Canada. His website is Empire and Economics, he hosts the podcast ‘In This Mad World.’ You can subscribe to his Substack and follow him on YouTube, Instagram, Facebook, or Twitter, and be sure to subscribe to his bi-weekly News Junkies newsletter.